Brazil’s online gambling market in 2025
On April 9th, at BiS SiGMA Americas 2025, Ed Birkin, Managing Director of H2 Gambling Capital, delivered a key insight into Brazil’s rapidly developing regulated online betting and iGaming market. With the regulatory framework in full swing, Birkin explored both the opportunities and challenges operators face, focusing on growth projections and the persistence of illegal operators.
Market growth and regulation
Birkin kicked off the keynote with an overview of Brazil’s market performance. In 2024, the Brazilian market for sports and iGaming generated approximately BRL 24 billion in Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR). This growth was fueled by the global trend of online gaming, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. While foreign currency conversions can cause discrepancies, Birkin emphasised that the market’s true scale is best viewed in local currency to avoid misleading fluctuations.
In January 2025, Brazil officially moved to a regulated framework. Despite initial data challenges, early estimates suggest BRL 1.4 billion in GGR, a 20% drop from the previous year. For operators who secured a .bet.br domain early on, the challenges of complying with Know-Your-Customer (KYC) checks made onboarding difficult, leading to what Birkin described as a “bloodbath.”
iGaming dominance and product trends
Although sports are a cultural staple in Brazil, iGaming, particularly online slots, dominates the market. Birkin estimated that 55% of the market is currently iGaming but noted that the proportion could rise to 60-65% as more data becomes available. This shift mirrors global trends where iGaming outpaces sports in revenue generation, even in football-centric countries like Brazil.
Moreover, crash games have gained significant traction in Brazil, far outpacing their popularity in more developed markets. Despite the buzz surrounding live casino offerings, slots remain the dominant product globally.
Unlicensed market persistence
A key focus of Birkin’s presentation was the enduring challenge posed by the unlicensed market. He divided this into the visible illegal market, characterised by traditional affiliate methods, and the invisible market, which operates under the radar, relying on influencers, Telegram links, and other non-traditional marketing methods. While the visible market is estimated to account for 28% of the GGR, the invisible market remains more elusive, with Birkin suggesting it could represent 40-60% of the total market.
Despite the regulation, customers continue to flock to unlicensed operators for better odds, fewer customer checks, and the ability to use credit or cryptocurrency. Birkin also noted that high-value players, who represent most of the market’s revenue, disproportionately use unlicensed sites.
Future market outlook
Birkin projected that the regulated Brazilian market could reach BRL 50 billion by 2029 (approximately USD 8 billion). However, he cautioned that these numbers exclude the invisible market, which is likely to be a significant factor in the actual market size. Despite regulation, Birkin expressed doubts that channelisation, the percentage of market activity that moves from unlicensed to licensed, would reach 90% in the next five years.
The keynote shed light on a rapidly evolving market where regulatory changes are creating both opportunities and obstacles. Operators will need to adapt to the challenges of player retention, customer segmentation, and the persistent illegal market. As Birkin put it, “It’s not just about acquiring customers; it’s about making them want to stay.”
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