Fears over retaliatory actions against United States-linked casino operators in the ongoing trade war are overstated, according to CBRE Equity Research, as reported by media. While acknowledging the existence of political risks, analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh believe fears of retaliation are likely to be “overblown”.
The analysts think the greater concern would be “collateral damage from broader actions, such as a devaluation of the mainland Chinese currency or capital flow curbs.” While they have acknowledged that US casino operators in Macau could potentially be targeted, the risk is “minimal (for now)”. This is because any major action against Macau’s integrated resorts industry would potentially have broader social and economic implications for the special administrative region (SAR).
Punitive measures “unlikely”
Another important factor is that US-based casino operators employ a staggering 14 percent of Macau’s workforce. Therefore, targeting these companies with punitive measures would be “unlikely” as any such measures could “destabilise” the city. According to the analysts, “collateral from broader policies like yuan devaluation or capital flow restrictions pose greater risks”.
Additionally, analysts wrote, “If exports decline, China could be motivated to provide additional fiscal stimulus to unlock the mountain of savings and boost domestic spending, which should support Macau’s gaming demand.” Currently Macau casino operators’ shares are trading at levels last seen in early 2022—a Covid-19 period still plagued by political and economic uncertainties.
Casino stocks impacted
In early April, casinos across Asia were impacted due to the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, with several Hong Kong-listed operators hitting multi-year lows on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) on 7 April 2025. The casino stocks plunged as part of a broader Hang Seng sell off, largely driven by the tariff war between the two countries. Hong Kong’s main stock market index, the Hang Seng Index (HSI), fell by over 13 percent on Monday—the steepest decline since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Whereas the new tariffs caused casino stocks across the US to tumble sharply on 3 April 2025. The stocks fell following US President Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement of sweeping new tariffs, sparking market volatility and investor anxiety across the gambling industry. However, according to the analysts, the sell-off began before the US announced reciprocal tariffs on 2 April 2025.
