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Investment bank CLSA has released a report estimating Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to be up 4 percent this year to MOP2.76 billion. This growth is primarily driven by an increase in visitors. CLSA expects Macau’s GGR for 2025 to be “modest”.
However, in 2026, the brokerage expects Macau’s GGR to rise 10.4 percent year-on-year to MOP224.19 billion. Analysts attribute this optimistic projection to several key factors, including stabilising property prices in China. This stabilisation could signal the beginning of a recovery in consumer confidence, which is expected to help drive Macau’s GGR growth in the latter half of 2025.
This projection comes as analysts note low growth in the Macau gaming market following a strong rebound over the past two years post-COVID.
For 2025, 36.4 million visitors are expected in Macau while the rebound in mainland China’s property market is projected to bring visitation to 39.9 million, surpassing pre-COVID levels.
Chinese consumer sentiment is a critical factor in the recovery of Macau’s gaming industry. Currently, consumer confidence in China is close to a 34-year low, which is a significant challenge for businesses in Macau. “This aligns with a plateau in Macau’s gaming revenue per visitor in 2024,” notes the reporting body.
As a result, analysts said that Macau’s gaming companies will need to adjust their investment plans during this time of “modest” growth and added dividend payouts still have not fully returned to pre-COVID-19 levels across the sector.
Citigroup’s projections for Macau’s GGR in 2025 reflect a cautiously optimistic outlook. For January 2025, Citigroup expects a GGR of MOP19 billion (US$2.38 billion), which represents 76 percent of 2019 levels.
Although this marks a slight 2 percent decline compared to January 2024, the bank expects a stronger performance in the first quarter overall, with a combined GGR for January and February reaching MOP40 billion (US$5.01 billion), up by 6 percent year-on-year.
Citigroup said that its forecast “neutralises the impact of the timing of Chinese New Year” and Golden Week that will take place from January 28 to February 4.
Analysts added that the January projection is also due to a slower travel period leading up to Chinese New Year, which usually occurs about two weeks before Golden week.
Macau’s gaming sector achieved MOP226.8 billion (€27.2 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2024, reflecting a 23.9 percent year-on-year increase. This marked the second consecutive year of recovery following the reopening of Macau’s borders in January 2023. The figure represents 77.5 percent of pre-pandemic revenue levels in 2019, highlighting steady progress despite ongoing challenges.
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