Dutch online gambling revenue craters as affordability rules bite
The Dutch online gambling market is in turmoil after the introduction of strict affordability checks, with industry experts warning of a mass shift to the black market and a bleak outlook for regulated operators. As the government ramps up deposit limits and prepares for hefty tax hikes, both online and land-based casinos are struggling to stay afloat.
Affordability checks trigger sharp revenue decline
The Netherlands’ online gambling sector had enjoyed years of rapid growth, but 2024 marked a turning point. While gross gaming revenue (GGR) still grew by 6.2 percent to €1.47 billion, the final months of the year saw a dramatic slump.
According to the Dutch Gambling Authority (Kansspelautoriteit, or KSA), online gambling revenue dropped by 12.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2023. Online casinos were hit hardest, with revenue plunging by 18.5 percent in Q4, dragging annual growth in the segment down to just 2.4 percent.
This collapse coincided with the introduction of new affordability-linked deposit limits on 1 October 2024. Under the new rules, most adults are capped at €700 per month, while those aged 18 to 24 face a limit of €300. In order to deposit more, players must submit to affordability checks, proving they can afford higher spending, something many are unwilling to do.
As a result, “Players are exiting the legal market once they have to start to share very personal financial information with licensed operators. It is incredibly naive to think those players simply stop playing,” said Justin Franssen, partner at Franssen Tolboom Lawyers. “I believe we have just seen the start of player migration to the black market. This will further accelerate when future additional restrictions will be put on the licensed market.”
Black market grows as political support wanes
The KSA’s own figures paint a worrying picture. By the second half of 2024, just over half of Dutch online gambling revenue was estimated to be flowing offshore, outside the regulated market. While the number of active legal gambling accounts edged up to 1.19 million, higher-value players are increasingly seeking out illegal sites to bypass the new limits.
“This decrease is probably due to both the peak during the European Football Championship in June 2024 and the new rules that should better protect players in the online gambling market,” the KSA stated, acknowledging that addicted players are now more likely to use illegal sites. The regulator estimates that half of all gambling losses in the Netherlands now occur outside the legal market.
Despite these risks, the political appetite for easing restrictions is minimal. Gambling remains deeply unpopular among Dutch politicians, with some calling for online licensing to be scrapped altogether.
As Franssen put it: “The government is not really interested in the commercial impact on the industry and currently there appears to be very little sympathy generally for the sector. Last year, the government collected more than a billion in gaming taxes. Once that number seriously decreases, only at that point may they come into action.”
Rising taxes and regulatory pressure threaten industry survival
As if falling revenues and black market competition weren’t enough, Dutch gambling operators now face a two-stage tax increase. The government is raising the gambling tax from 30.5 percent to 34.2 percent in 2025, with a further hike to 37.8 percent coming in 2026. Industry leaders warn this could force operators out of the market or even lead to the closure of state-owned Holland Casino’s online operations.
“The proposed increase to 37.8% gambling tax in 2026 requires drastic choices that, even after further study, are irresponsible in our opinion,” said Holland Casino CEO Petra de Ruiter. “To ensure this, both the attractiveness of our offer and the continuity of the company are of crucial importance. Attractiveness is essential to keep players within the legal offer and to prevent guests from switching from physical casinos to online alternatives. To do this, we must be able to invest and innovate. The announced increase in gambling tax makes this virtually impossible.”
The combination of strict affordability checks, soaring taxes, and a hostile political climate has left the Dutch gambling market at a crossroads. As Franssen warned: “Currently, there are a number of businesses in serious trouble, both land-based and online, and there is more trouble on the horizon, I am afraid.”
For now, the Dutch government appears unmoved by industry pleas, prioritising player protection and tax revenue over the viability of the regulated market. But with the black market booming, the question remains: how long can this approach last before the cure becomes worse than the disease?
