Macau’s April GGR faces flat growth, analyst forewarns
Macau’s gaming industry is expected to see little growth in April 2025, with analysts predicting stable gross gaming revenue (GGR) following three months of post-pandemic normalisation. However, concerns have emerged over the impact of a recent crackdown on illegal money changers, which could cause a temporary dip in visitor spending.
Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky has warned that recent law enforcement actions against money exchange operations could lead to a short-term decline in demand. “Customers may stay away from pawnshops, and others may choose to delay their trips to Macau,” he said.
The crackdown led to the arrest of more than 40 individuals from Macau and mainland China. Authorities alleged that these individuals facilitated illicit transactions amounting to nearly HK$800 million (€92 million) over a five-month period through local pawn shops.
Despite this, analysts do not anticipate a long-term impact on Macau’s overall gaming demand. Yet, the crackdown poses a potential challenge for gaming operators in April, with Seaport forecasting a 0.1 percent decline year-on-year and a 5.8 percent drop month-on-month in GGR. However, the firm maintains its full-year 2025 forecast of 6.5 percent growth, with a stronger recovery anticipated in the second half of the year.
Modest growth in March
Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that total gaming revenue for March 2025 reached MOP 19.66 billion (€2.26 billion), marking a 0.8 percent increase from March 2024. However, revenue saw a slight month-on-month decline of 0.4 percent from February’s figure.
The total GGR for the first quarter of 2025 now stands at MOP 57.66 billion (€6.61 billion), reflecting a 0.6 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
February had seen a stronger performance, with GGR rising 6.8 percent year-on-year to MOP 19.74 billion (€2.27 billion). This increase was largely driven by post-Chinese New Year demand, although the Lunar New Year Golden Week did not perform as strongly as initially expected.
Better outlook in second half of year
JP Morgan analysts observed that while headline GGR for the first three months of 2025 remained flat at MOP 57.7 billion (€6.62 billion), the daily run-rate data suggests modest growth in the second half of 2025. The daily average revenue stood at MOP 64.1 million (€73.7 million), reflecting a 2 percent increase year-on-year and a 3 percent rise month-on-month.
“This is the highest daily run-rate in over 20 quarters,” JP Morgan noted. The investment bank believes that this trend bodes well for stronger growth in the second half of the year, particularly from June onwards, as the industry benefits from easier comparisons to the previous year’s figures.
While the impact of the money changer crackdown remains to be seen, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic that Macau’s gaming sector will maintain its recovery trajectory in 2025.
