Macau gaming revenue expected to recover this month

February 6, 2025

Macau gaming revenue expected to recover this month

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to recover this month. The region is expected to record low single-digit growth for the first two months of the year, said Success Universe deputy chairman Ma Ho-man.

However, he said it would be “unrealistic” to expect Macau’s casino GGR reaching pre-pandemic levels. The Success Universe senior executive remarked that driving foot traffic to boost mass market play is key to driving revenue growth momentum of Macau’s gaming sector.

This holds especially true since the city now had only about “20 percent” of its gross gaming revenue (GGR) coming from the VIP segment. He believes GGR returning to pre-COVID-19 levels is unrealistic owing to the decline in VIP gaming.

He expected “a few percentage points” year-on-year growth for Macau’s city-wide 2025 casino GGR. His projection is a “flat” or “low single-digit” growth for the first two months of this year combined – a period that included the lunar new year holiday season.

GGR returning to pre-COVID-19 levels was deemed unrealistic as the city now had only about “20 percent” of its gross gaming revenue (GGR) coming from the VIP segment.

January’s GGR fall

In January, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a decline in total gaming revenue. For the month, Macau’s GGR came at MOP 18.25 billion. reflecting a 5.6 percent year-on-year decline. This marks the second consecutive month of year-on-year losses after December’s 2 percent GGR decline.

January’s fall is despite analysts anticipating a more modest decline due to the seasonal lead-up to the Lunar New Year. The fall has raised concerns about Macau’s recovery trajectory, with factors like reduced VIP play, a shifting regulatory environment and economic conditions in China influencing market performance.

The upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations, which usher in the Year of the Snake, are expected to provide a further boost to Macau’s tourism and gaming markets.

The Chinese New Year holiday, scheduled from 28 January 2025 to 4 February 2025, marks one of the busiest periods for the region. The festivities peak on 29 January 2025 and historically drive significant visitor numbers and gaming activity.

What contributed to the fall?

Several factors, including the introduction of stricter gaming laws have contributed to the fall. The new legal framework governing Macau’s casinos has limited the role of junket operators. Junkets, which were previously responsible for attracting high-stakes gamblers to the region, have been significantly curtailed by new laws and restrictions. These regulatory changes have impacted revenue streams and the overall casino environment.

Casino operations have also restructured post Macau government’s prohibition on soliciting customers from mainland China. This has caused gaming companies to adjust to a reliance on mass-market and premium-mass players instead of VIP clientele.

The decline in VIP gaming marked a major shift in the gaming industry. Mass-market segments now account for over 77 percent of total gaming revenue, reflecting the changing preferences of casino customers.

The restrictions placed on junkets that prohibit them from sharing casino profits and limiting their role to commission-based operations also have a big role to play in the shift toward mass-market gaming.