Despite entering what is usually a quieter season, recent reports reveal that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for June is performing well beyond expectations, defying historical trends. According to industry reports cited by Macao Daily, Macau’s gaming industry has recorded MOP 10 billion ($1.23 billion) in GGR in the first 15 days of June.
Between June 9 and 15, Citigroup analysts reported that average daily revenue rose by 5 percent to MOP 686 million. The increase comes on the back of strong VIP performance, with win rates exceeding both seasonal averages and the earlier part of the month. Analysts have revised GGR forecast for June from MOP 18.5 billion to MOP 19 billion, representing about 80 percent of June 2019’s pre-pandemic levels.
HSBC Global Research also attributes the positive performance to elevated VIP win rates. Premium players are keeping tables active even as the broader mass market faces seasonal dips. Additionally foot-traffic benefited from a stable high-end mass market activity and wave of non-gaming events, enhancing overall casino visitation rates. If average daily revenue maintains its pace between MOP 62 million and MOP 68 million, HSBC projects June’s GGR could land between MOP 19.3 billion and MOP 20.2 billion. This would represent an annual growth of 9 percent to 14 percent.
Demand may soften in latter half of June: JPM
On the other hand, J.P. Morgan analysts caution that demand may soften in the latter half of June. However, even with a modest slowdown, the market is expected to sustain year-on-year growth. The analysts estimate that Q2 revenue could post a 5 to 6 percent increase compared to the same period last year, owing to strong June performance. Meanwhile, UBS noted that current average daily revenue, sitting at MOP 66.7 million, is 2 percent below May’s levels. In contrast, between 2015 and 2019, June typically saw a percent quarter-on-quarter dip.
Jefferies Equity Research analyst Anne Ling noted that Macau gambling revenue could soar by as much as 14 percent this month. The low end of the growth projection was 9 percent. This optimistic forecast comes at a time when the Macau government also raised its forecast. Now, Macau’s casino sector is expected generate up to $2.5 billion in June, compared to the previous prediction of $2.3 billion.
GGR forecast for 2H2025
Another note from Citigroup forecasted that Macau’s GGR will grow by 6 percent in the second half of 2025, resulting in a 4 percent year-on-year increase for the full year to reach about MOP235.7 billion. Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that Macau’s gaming market is “reaching an inflection point for good” and that they “remain bullish” on the city’s gaming sector. “The consecutive GGR beats in April and May, plus the strong start to the month of June, likely indicate that Macau is reaching an inflection point for good,” they wrote in the memo.”
JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd previously noted that consumer demand for Macau casino gambling has reportedly remained “healthy” in early June. Analysts said the GGR for the first eight days is estimated to be MOP5.2 billion or MOP650 million a day. Analysts DS Kim and Selina Li wrote, “Albeit lower than May – MOP684 million a day –this is a very healthy level for shoulder months such as June, seemingly helped by G-Dragon concert as well as the Dragon Boat festival.”
For the month of May, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a 5 percent year-on-year rise in total GGR, the highest since the Covid-19 pandemic. For the month, GGR totaled MOP21.19 billion, a notable 12.4 percent increase over the MOP18.86 billion registered in April.
