Macau government has trimmed its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast by 5 percent for 2025 to MOP228 billion ($28.3 billion), citing mounting economic uncertainty and shifting tourist behaviour. Originally, the GGR for the year was forecast to be about MOP240 billion ($29.8 billion).
City’s revised 2025 fiscal budget plan
André Cheong Weng Chon, Macau’s Secretary for Administration and Justice, made the official announcement following a meeting of the Executive Council. The updated projection comes as part of the city’s revised 2025 fiscal budget plan, which will be submitted to the Legislative Assembly for approval.
According to Ho In Mui, deputy director of the Financial Services Bureau, the revision was driven by a mix of global uncertainty, cautious consumer behaviour, and current-year performance. Macau’s average monthly GGR from January to April 2025 stood at MOP19 billion, falling short of the government’s monthly benchmark of MOP20 billion.
Ho explained, “After observing our fiscal income status in the first half of this year, we now assume that if we are reaching MOP19 billion in GGR a month, or MOP228 billion for the full year, that would make a balanced budget for the Macau SAR.”
In May, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a 5 percent year-on-year rise in total GGR, the highest monthly GGR recorded since the Covid-19 pandemic. For the month, GGR totaled MOP21.19 billion, a notable 12.4 percent increase over the MOP18.86 billion registered in April. Cumulatively, GGR for the five months of this year totaled MOP97.7 billion, compared to the MOP96.05 billion generated in the same period last year.
May GGR figures
The May figure also marked the first time this year that the monthly GGR has topped the government’s monthly benchmark of MOP20 billion. The strong results come on the back of a “strong gaming demand,” as noted by brokerages, at the time of the five-day mainland China holiday. Macau welcomed more than 850,000 visitors, surpassing projections, over the five-day holiday from 1 May to 5 May— averaging more than 170,000 arrivals each day.
In the light of Macau posting its strongest and “better-than-expected” GGR results since the onset of Covid-19 in May, Seaport Research Partners has estimated that June GGR could be up by 3.4 percent yearly. Analyst Vitaly Umansky has projected June’s gross gaming to near $2.28 billion, based upon a daily GGR estimate of $76 million. Analysts have also noted that the May results could likely lead to a drop in June’s results of up to 13.7 percent, which is above the ‘historical month-to-month average of 12 percent during 2008-2019’. To put it in perspective, June of 2024 saw GGR for the month drop by 12.4 percent sequentially.
For April, GGR totaled MOP18.86 billion, up 1.7 from the corresponding period. But marked a decline of 4.1 percent sequentially. While the registered GGR outperformed consensus of a 1 percent decline, it remained below the MOP20 billion level needed to stay on track with the government’s fiscal year 2025 target of MOP240 billion.
