Macau March GGR likely flat, US$1.26 billion: JP Morgan
Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) has been estimated at MOP$621 million (US$77.5 million) per day over the past week, according to brokerage JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd. This figure is relatively stable compared to the MOP$631 million (US$78.8 million) daily average for the first 16 days of March.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Mufan Shi from JP Morgan estimate total GGR for the first 16 days of March at MOP$10.1 billion (US$1.26 billion). The mass gaming segment continues to outperform pre-COVID levels, reaching approximately 110 percent of 2019 numbers, while the VIP segment remains subdued, operating at just over 20 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
Flat year-on-year growth expected
JP Morgan analysts forecast Macau’s total GGR for March to remain flat year-on-year at around MOP$19 billion (US$2.37 billion). Given this trend, first-quarter GGR is also expected to show no significant growth compared to the same period last year.
“We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year on easier comps (+5 percent to 6 percent year-on-year in 2H25) resulting in a modest +3 percent growth for FY25,” they wrote in a Monday note.
Investor sentiment remains muted
Although demand remains steady, investor interest in Macau gaming stocks has been subdued. JP Morgan analysts describe investor sentiment as “apathetic,” with current revenue levels not yet strong enough to drive significant stock market movements.
However, the sector’s declining stock valuations could present buying opportunities for long-term investors. The analysts suggest that the stability in gaming revenue could encourage accumulation of Macau gaming stocks.
Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China seen as top picks
Among Macau’s gaming operators, JP Morgan highlights Galaxy Entertainment Group as a strong contender for future growth. The company’s expansion pipeline, robust balance sheet, and potential opportunities in Thailand contribute to its positive outlook. MGM China is also identified as an “absolute value pick” due to its favourable valuation.
February’s figures
For the month of February, Macau’s GGR witnessed a rise of 6.8 percent year-on-year, hitting MOP19.74 billion, according to Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). The GGR for February came in 8.2 percent higher than the corresponding period last year, when gaming revenue reached MOP$18.3 billion.
For the combined two months of 2025, GGR reached MOP$38.0 billion, this is up 0.5 percent compared with the same period last year. February’s result comes after operators reported strong post-Chinese New Year demand which helped soften the blow that the city’s casinos faced during the “softer than originally forecast” Lunar New Year Golden Week.
