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Macau’s gambling industry demonstrated surprising strength in January by outperforming typical expectations for a period often characterised by seasonal weakness ahead of the Lunar New Year.
Analysts at JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd estimate Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for the first 19 days of January at approximately $1.51 billion (€1.23 billion), with a daily average of $79 million (€64 million).
Notably, the demand has remained steady even during the traditionally slower pre-holiday period. Analysts attribute this to a combination of pent-up travel demand and Macau’s strategic recovery efforts, bolstering optimism for the region’s gaming and hospitality sectors.
The upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations, which usher in the Year of the Snake, is expected to provide a further boost to Macau’s tourism and gaming markets.
The Chinese New Year holiday, scheduled from 28 January 2025 to 4 February 2025, marks one of the busiest periods for the region. The festivities, peaking on 29 January 2025, historically drive significant visitor numbers and gaming activity.
Breaking from established seasonal patterns, gaming activity has maintained momentum ahead of the festival period, rather than showing the typical pre-holiday decline. Analysts expect this trend to continue through the celebrations, with JP Morgan projecting steady to modest gains in gaming revenue across January and February.
The daily gaming revenue rate is also expected to rise by 2 percent to 4 percent compared to 2024, despite the holiday falling earlier in the year, making year-on-year comparisons more complicated.
In addition, Macau’s hotel sector is poised for a successful festive season. Andy Wu Keng Kuong, president of the Macau Travel Industry Council, has expressed optimism that hotel occupancy rates during the holiday could exceed last year’s impressive average of 95 percent.
JP Morgan also observed near-full bookings across Macau’s integrated resorts, projecting record-breaking figures for mass-market gaming revenue and visitation. While acknowledging the challenge of comparing figures to last year’s robust performance, the institution remains optimistic.
It forecasts overall Gross Gaming Revenue growth of 5 percent for 2025, driven by a 7 percent increase in the mass-market segment, despite a 4 percent decline in VIP gaming.
This departure from typical pre-festival patterns comes as Macau continues to monitor its gaming sector performance, following its post-pandemic recovery period. Macau’s unusual pre-holiday strength, combined with promising forecasts for the Lunar New Year, indicates a potential record-breaking period for the region’s gaming industry.