Macau’s GGR hits €855M, yet analysts doubt yearly growth

February 11, 2025

Macau’s GGR hits €855M, yet analysts doubt yearly growth

JP Morgan has reported that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP$7.4 billion (€855 million) in the first nine days of February, with daily revenue averaging MOP$822 million (€95 million), according to GGR Asia. While the Chinese New Year (CNY) period underperformed, demand in the days following the holiday helped stabilise overall revenue.

JP Morgan’s latest memo indicates that post-Golden Week activity – from 28 January to 4 February 2025 – performed “better than feared,” with daily revenue averaging MOP$725 million (€83 million). Analysts suggested that this softened the impact of an otherwise weak CNY period, keeping the month-to-date figures within expectations, albeit at the lower end.

The firm has projected February’s total GGR to range between MOP$18.3 billion (€2.1 billion), a one percent year-on-year decline, and MOP$19.4 billion (€2.2 billion), which would represent a five percent increase.

Doubts loom over full year GGR growth

Depending on the remainder of the month’s performance, combined January and February figures could see a two percent year-on-year fluctuation in either direction.

However, JP Morgan also warned that full-year GGR growth for 2025 may remain in the low single digits, between one percent and four percent, lower than market expectations. Analysts noted that buy-side expectations have already adjusted to near-flat growth, but further downward revisions could impact valuations until signs of market stabilisation emerge.

Other industry analysts have echoed concerns about Macau’s 2025 outlook, particularly following disappointing Golden Week figures. Citigroup also revised down its 2025 growth forecast for Macau’s casino sector, citing weak Chinese New Year (CNY) gambling activity and fresh US tariffs on Chinese exports.

The brokerage firm now expects a three percent year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR), significantly lower than its previous seven percent projection.

Gaming revenue fells short of expectations

Similarly, Seaport Research Partners recently estimated that gaming revenue for the holiday period reached MOP$6.24 billion (€721 million), with a daily average of MOP$780 million (€90 million), reflecting a one percent year-on-year decline and an eight percent drop compared to 2019’s pre-pandemic levels.

Typically, the Lunar New Year holiday is a peak period for Macau’s casinos, yet gaming revenue fell short of expectations. Market analysts attribute this to several factors, including lingering economic uncertainty in China, shifting travel patterns, and increased competition from other global gaming destinations.

Despite concerns over 2025 growth projections, some industry experts remain cautiously optimistic. They believe that Macau’s gaming sector could see a turnaround if consumer confidence strengthens, regulatory conditions remain stable, and international tourism picks up in the latter half of the year.

Additionally, further investment in non-gaming attractions and integrated resort offerings may help diversify Macau’s economy and attract a broader range of visitors.