Operating expenses to hit Macau’s 1Q industry EBITDA: Citi
Banking institution Citigroup has projected that Macau’s gaming industry’s first quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) will dip by 6 percent year-on-year to nearly $1.92 billion. Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau have said this is due to the industry facing increased “incremental opex (operating expenses) from new supply.”
“Although player reinvestments seem to remain at reasonable levels, we believe industry opex increased in the quarter due to incremental costs associated with new supply launched, especially at Sands [China’s] Londoner Grand [hotel],” according to Citi. “Also, a few operators seem to have suffered from less favourable hold.” Citi expects first-quarter EBITDA margin to be “at circa 26 percent”, down from 28 percent a year earlier.
“The year-on-year base was high as renovation work at [The] Londoner was in the early stage and Bruno Mars staged a concert in Macau in first-quarter 2024,” stated the analysts. “Sands [China] introduced 700 new suites at Londoner Grand right before Chinese New Year 2025, but it seems associated incremental opex was not met by higher market GGR or market-share gain.”
GGR for March and estimates for April
Last week, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a minimal rise in total gaming revenue for March 2025. For the month, total gross gaming revenue (GGR) totaled MOP19.66 billion, marking a modest 0.8 percent increase compared to March 2024. This month’s gaming revenue marks a slight decrease of 0.4 percent from February’s figure.
March’s figure took the aggregate gaming revenue so far this year to nearly MOP57.66 billion, up 0.6 percent on the same period in 2024. Last month, total gaming gross revenue (GGR) was up 6.8 percent year-on-year to reach MOP19.74 billion ($2.46 billion). February’s result comes after operators reported strong post-Chinese New Year demand which helped soften the blow that the city’s casinos faced during the “softer than originally forecast” Lunar New Year Golden Week.
In another investment memo, Citigroup has estimated that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached about MOP3.5 billion in the first six days of April 2025. The daily GGR in early April stood at MOP583 million, marking an 8 percent decrease when compared to the late March figures. Late March recorded daily rate of MOP632 million.
