Seaport reaffirms Macau GGR estimate for 2025

February 7, 2025

Seaport reaffirms Macau GGR estimate for 2025

According to Seaport Research Partners, the average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Macau’s casinos during the Lunar New Year Golden Week was “softer than originally forecast”.

Macau’s GGR from the eight-day holiday period, from January 28 to February 4, stood at MOP780 million, with an aggregate of about MOP6.24 billion. “The daily average would be down 1 percent compared to Chinese New Year [CNY] 2024 and down 8 percent compared to Chinese New Year 2019,” wrote senior analyst Vitaly Umansky.

Arrivals during Lunar New Year Golden Week

Macau registered 1.31 million visitor arrivals between 28 January and 4 February, according to official data. This marks a drop of 3.5 per cent from last year’s Chinese New Year holiday period, averaging nearly 164,000 visitors per day.

“The average daily visitation of 163,700 per day was 4 percent below Chinese New Year 2024 and 5 percent below Chinese New Year 2019,” noted Seaport.

It added, “Estimated per visitor GGR was US$593, up 3 percent compared to Chinese New Year 2024 and down 3 percent compared to Chinese New Year 2019.”

Umansky, however, noted that “spend per visitor is a somewhat misleading figure, as Macau likely saw many non-gaming visitors come into the city during the holiday.” He highlighted that “anecdotes from Macau point to somewhat better premium play than base mass play.”

Seaport notes that the Lunar New Year Golden Week casino performance is an important sentiment driver for Macau. However, analysts said the actual holiday is often mixed in terms of results, “with Chinese New Year 2019 representing only 2 percent of 2019 GGR and 2024 Chinese New Year representing 2.7 percent of 2024 GGR.”

Macau’s casino market forecast reaffirmed

Reaffirming Macau’s casino market forecast of MOP242 billion in GGR for full-year 2025, the brokerage said it expects February’s performance “to be slightly better than January.” The brokerage also maintained its GGR estimate for month of February at MOP18.5 billion. The estimate is almost flat year-on-year and marks a slight increase of 1.3 percent month-on-month.

Seaport has maintained its predication despite the slow Chinese New Year period. The brokerage expects GGR growth at about 7 percent. Analysts believe an “upside surprise [is] possible on a turnaround in the Chinese economy and consumer sentiment.”

“If our estimate proves correct, the combined January-February period would be down 2.8 percent year-on-year,” Umansky noted.

The uptick would possibly be due to the increased tariff regime in the US, which could cause “China policymakers to more forcefully look at expanding consumption and improving domestic consumer confidence.” This would in turn hinge on fiscal stimulus and regulatory easing measures, with a focus of “shoring up the real estate market.” It would likely result in a stronger base mass recovery in the latter part of 2025, Umansky noted.