S&P Global estimates 5-6% growth for Macau gaming in 2025

Neha Soni January 21, 2025
S&P Global estimates 5-6% growth for Macau gaming in 2025

S&P Global Ratings estimates that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could grow by 5 to 6 percent in 2025.

This growth is largely driven by strong momentum in the mass market segment, with mass GGR projected to be 15-20 percent above pre-pandemic level. This comes despite the junket (or VIP) segment expected to remain at low levels unless regulatory changes take place. Due to this, total GGR is expected to reach only 80 to 85 percent of 2019 levels.

This projection aligns with another forecast by investment bank CLSA estimates Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to be up 4 percent this year to MOP2.76 billion. This growth is primarily driven by an increase in visitors. CLSA expects Macau’s GGR for 2025 to be “modest”.

In addition, Goldman Sachs has predicted an 8 percent year-on-year growth in Macau’s GGR for 2025 on the back of strong travel spending from Chinese tourists.

EBITDA growth in Macau’s leading operators

S&P Global Ratings also expects significant earnings before interest, taxes, depriciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growth in Macau’s leading operators. Notably, Melco Resorts (Macau) Ltd. and Sands China are set to witness the fastest growth, owing to the ramp-up of new or renovated properties.

Melco is likely to benefit from the ramp-up of Study City Phase 2 while Sands will be helped by reopening of The Londoner and the return of base mass with its largest hotel portfolio in Macau.

The ratings agency noted that MGM China has surpassed its pre-pandemic EBITDA. Overall, the agency expects other Macau operators will recover to about 90 percent of their 2019 EBITDA levels by 2025, a notable growth across the sector.

Weaker Chinese economy – a risk

While the outlook remains positive, Analysts Flora Chang and Melissa Long have warned of potential risks that could impact the region’s gaming industry. These include a slowed growth due to a weaker Chinese economy. This is particularly for base mass players who are more sensitive to economic changes such as weak employment or earnings prospects. 

S&P Global Ratings has also highlighted that potentially higher operating expenses aimed at attracting more premium mass players could challenge Macau’s cash flow and leverage improvement.

The report also adds that US-based operators like Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, and MGM Resorts International are in active competition and will likely bid for three full-scale New York casino licences.

The agency said that Macau operators are well-positioned to meet their liquidity needs to address 2025 and 2026 maturities. Adding that operators have sufficient cash to sustain their healthy liquidity positions, despite the market’s ongoing challenges.

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