Joe Biden is not the favourite to win the next US election and right now he has a 17 percent chance (+500 odds) of being re-elected in the next presidential election according to betting analysts and bookmakers’ odds. Biden won the last election with 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 232 votes. The forthcoming presidential election will take place on Tuesday, 5 November, 2024. Former President Donald Trump is the current bookies’ favourite at +300 odds (25 percent chance).
If Donald Trump wins the Republican nominee, he will try to accomplish what President Stephen Grover Cleveland did before him and serve two non-consecutive terms as President of the USA. Cleveland served two terms, the first from 1885 to 1889 and the second from 1893 to 1897.
Pollsters forecast that Biden is the only candidate who could defeat Trump as he has already defeated him once. However they predict that Biden would most certainly lose to new prospective Republican candidate, Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.
Biden is also proud of his middle class Pennsylvania roots. The electorate do not regard him as a member of the political elite such as Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton. This makes him appear more down-to-earth and approachable.
Should Biden win the US election he will follow Barack Obama, George Bush and Bill Clinton with a two-term presidency. Although he does not appear to be the favourite to win the Presidential race, the polls suggest that Biden could narrowly beat Trump again.
During the last election Trump promised to “make America greater” and that appealed to the electorate. Joe Biden’s electoral mantra was to ‘restore decency’.
There are concerns about Biden and Trump’s ages – Biden will be 81 going on to 82 and Trump will be 78. This means that it would be the first time for opposing presidential candidates to be both over the age of 75.
Biden has faced many challenges since he became President.
On starting his term in office, he was faced with the management of the COVID19 pandemic. At that time he successfully rolled out a US $1.9 trillion relief package that provided direct payments of up to US $1,400 to US citizens that were struggling to make ends meet. This was further supported by US $300 per week unemployment subsidy. Provisions were also made of US $25 billion and $350 billion towards relief efforts. Another massive achievement for Biden was that 74 percent of the US population received at least one dose of the COVID vaccine.
Another major flagship for Biden was the approval of a US $1.2 trillion for infrastructure investment towards the improvement of transport channels that include bridges and roads, airports, public transport, waterways and energy systems. At the time, the bill was supported by 13 Republicans who broke ranks to vote with the Democrats and 15 economists who are Nobel Prize winners.
We’re doing so much with this legislation. It’s going to make it easier for companies to get goods to market more quickly and reduce supply chain bottlenecks, now and for decades to come.” Joe Biden, President of the USA
Federal judiciary and the appointment of 41 federal judges during his first year in the White House was high on President Biden’s agenda.
Biden will eradicate capital punishment
Today 80 percent of the new federal judges are women and 53 percent of the judiciary are African American, Asian American or Hispanic.
President Biden also opposes federal penalty and he paused federal executions, He has also vowed to eradicate capital punishment. Combating climate change has also been a priority for Biden and he has halted the financing of new international carbon-intensive fossil fuel products in a drive to move towards clean energy.
Biden also overturned Trump’s ban on openly transgender members in the US military. The national unemployment rate has also dropped since he became President.
The only three likely contenders with more than a 5 percent probability of winning the US election are Kamala Harris, Rob DeSantis, and Nikki Haley.
After much hype on the announcement of Kamala Harris as the first female Vice President in the history of the USA, she has been unable to win the electorate’s backing so far to make a strong candidate. She is also the first African American and Asian American Vice President of the USA. It is however anticipated that over the next year, as the next election approaches, Harris will be offered more opportunities that will give her positive exposure to the public in the build up of the campaign.
Former governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley says that she can unite America and lead the country to national consensus on abortion. 51 year-old Haley is the daughter of immigrant Sikh parents from Punjab. She has officially announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination for President in 2024. She is one of the bookies’ favourites.
Although Trump continues to attack another favourite, Ron DeSantis in public and on social media, it is most likely that Trump is planning to cooperate with Florida Governor DeSantis. Insiders close to the Republicans report that Trump would like to make a deal with DeSantis as his VP. Should DeSantis accept, it may mean that he will stop opposing Trump and this could be a win-win situation for both Presidential candidates.
America is a democracy and it will soon be down to the voters to make their decisions. At the moment the bookies’ odds are in favour of a Trump’s re-election.