Plinko and the Psychology of Decision-Making

Plinko’s popularity has soared in recent years, but nobody has stopped to wonder why. Probably because its appeal is almost intuitively easy to understand—Plinko just grabs our attention and holds it. But what is it about this beautifully simple game that keeps us so easily hooked?

The secret is in the psychology of decision-making. We seem to be naturally fascinated by control, but even more so by what we can’t control, yet we believe we can. Even though the final result of every Plinko round is up to mechanics and probability, we can’t get rid of the feeling that we can, somehow, still influence the outcome.

Anticipation Thrills Us…

We humans seem to be hardwired to predict outcomes, constantly. Being as rational as we are, we love to understand any situation and be in control at all times. Like a veteran tennis player who always has an adequate response to any shot his opponent makes. Even though he can’t know what his opponent’s next move will be, he’s never caught off guard. That’s the attitude we want to have toward everything in life.  

But our subconscious mind seems to have a different opinion. Safety and predictability cause us to release serotonin, the hormone of relaxation, but surprisingly, uncertainty and anticipation trigger the release of another “happiness hormone”—dopamine. So, at least in situations where we’re not directly threatened, risk tends to thrill us and, in a way, make us happy.  

Dopamine gives us a strong feeling of satisfaction and motivation. Unlike serotonin, which creates a long-lasting sense of peace, dopamine kicks in abruptly and gives us intense, sudden bursts of joy. But the interesting part here is that when playing Plinko or similar games of chance, dopamine kicks in before the conclusion of a game round. So, watching the ball’s chaotic movements and not knowing where it will land is what brings us joy, not the result itself. This is the reason why games of chance, including Plinko, are so much fun. 

…But Can We Actually Influence the Outcome?

The original Plinko in The Price Is Right is designed to give players a choice of where to drop the ball from. It uses a rectangular board with a broad, open-top side. This setting allows players to come up with playing strategies, even though their active participation is limited. They only get to choose the initial drop position of the ball and, consequentially, impact the next few bounces, but the force of randomness takes over before the ball reaches the bottom.  

Yet this is enough to make players firmly convinced they can predict the ball’s path. If they score a solid win on their first try, they keep dropping the ball from the same position, even though it keeps landing in different spots. The truth is that every outcome in Plinko is entirely random, which is precisely what makes the game so thrilling. It’s impossible to alter the ball’s path with personal efforts, but at the same time, it’s incredibly exciting to believe that we can. 

We Seek Patterns…

Predicting outcomes requires patterns. We subconsciously draw connections between countless seemingly chaotic events that happen around us and fit them into scenarios. Each scenario has its expected outcome, so when we notice the first signs of it, we jump straight to the conclusion that a particular outcome is due. Furthermore, we actively look for signs that will help us make our predictions. 

Most versions of the modern online Plinko have a fixed ball drop zone, which eliminates the idea that we can influence the game by choosing where to drop. But another cognitive bias comes into play here—the so-called “gambler’s fallacy.” When playing games of luck, we have to be aware that previous results don’t influence future outcomes. Every game round is a separate event. But it’s so tempting to believe that we can figure out a pattern of how Plinko plays out and then increase the bet when we think it’s about to hit a high multiplier. 

Such beliefs are reinforced through confirmation bias. This means that we disregard those outcomes that don’t fit into expectations but pay attention to those that do, even if they occur rarely. We give them more significance than others and consider them confirmation that our beliefs were right all along. 

…And Avoid Losses

Also, research has shown that losses have a stronger emotional impact on us than wins. Simply put, we fear losses more than we enjoy wins. This confirms what I mentioned earlier—that we enjoy the anticipation more than the win itself. Such loss aversion often motivates players to seek “safer” gaming options. That’s why RTP is such an essential factor in online gaming, and some varieties of Plinko have RTPs as high as 99%.  

Not only that, but the very design of Plinko gives players the notion that they “can’t lose.” Even in high-risk settings, the middle slots of the Plinko board have multipliers of 0.20x. This means that every ball drop scores at least a small win. Even though such wins are less than the bet, they still return something. This is in stark contrast to slot games, and especially high-volatility ones, where long, dry streaks can commonly occur.