Betting forecast of UK General Election as Betfair attracts £1.35m in under 24 hours
The announcement of the UK General Election has set the betting markets abuzz, with a staggering £1.35 million ($1.72 million) wagered on Betfair Exchange’s General Election markets within the first 24 hours. It was not the most auspicious start for Prime Minister Sunak. The image of him, drenched in the heavy downpour of rain and looking somewhat uncomfortable, (photo above), was plastered across the media. He confirmed that the election would take place on 4 July. The rain, it seemed, was an ill omen, casting a shadow over the start of his campaign. As soon as the announcement was over, the opposition party took an early lead in the betting markets.
On the inaugural day of the election campaign, the Betfair Exchange markets indicated that the Labour Party had a 1/5 chance of winning a majority, equivalent to an 83 percent probability. In contrast, the Conservative Party was 5/7 to experience seat losses of 200 or more.
General Scenario at the bookies
Odds
Seats Range Odds
100-149 seats in favour of the Labour Party
3.0
Government Scenarios
Labour Majority
1/8
Labour Minority
14/1
Labour-Lib Dem Coalition
20/1
Conservative Minority
25/1
No Overall Majority
7/1
Conservative Majority
33/1
Overall Majority
Labour Majority
1/7
No Overall Majority
7/1
Conservative Majority
33/1
Source: SiGMA
More of a leaning towards Labour Party
In response to these developments, punters have placed almost £500,000 on Labour to win the most seats and nearly £200,000 for a Labour majority. Betfair Spokesperson Sam Rosbottom commented on this trend, stating that punters have been “putting their money where their mouths are,” with a whopping £1.35 million wagered on the Betfair Exchange UK general election markets in the last 24 hours.
The majority of this amount has been in favour of the Labour party, with almost £500,000 wagered on them to win the most seats alone since yesterday morning. However, despite Labour’s dominance in terms of money, more bets were placed on a no overall majority outcome and the Conservatives to win most seats in the last 24 hours. This suggests that while Labour are at such short odds, punters remain speculative about the outcome.
The betting forecast for the UK General Election continues to evolve, reflecting the dynamic nature of politics and the uncertainty of outcomes. As the election date approaches, it will be interesting to see how these odds shift and what they ultimately reveal about the UK’s political landscape.
Some people have expressed concern about the timing of the election, questioning whether a summer General Election is a good idea. Farmers and farming organisations have also reacted to the announcement, discussing its implications on the economy and public services. The media coverage of the announcement varied, with some outlets describing it as a ‘big-risk political gamble’, while others focused on the unexpected nature of the announcement.
