Bookies’ odds bet on change as UK general election approaches

Lea Hogg June 20, 2024

As the UK general election approaches, the political landscape is brimming with anticipation and speculation. The latest betting odds provide a glimpse into the potential outcomes of key political figures and their constituencies.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak seems to be navigating through turbulent political waters, with recent events putting him in a defensive stance. Despite this, the odds suggest a strong likelihood of him retaining his seat in Richmond and Northallerton, with SkyBet offering odds of 1/3. This reflects a broader sentiment that, while the Conservative Party may face challenges, Sunak’s personal seat appears secure.

Penny Mordaunt, a prominent figure within the Conservative Party, and until recently occupying the role of ‘Leader of the House’, is often mentioned as a potential leader. But as the election draws closer, she is facing a different scenario. The odds indicate a potential upset in her Portsmouth North seat, with Labour being the favoured party at 4/9. This shift suggests a significant challenge for Mordaunt, highlighting the volatile nature of political fortunes.

Candidate/Politician	Party	Bookie’s Odds (SkyBet)
🔵Rishi Sunak	Conservative	1/3
🔵Penny Mordaunt	Conservative	4/9
🔵Liz Truss	Conservative	2/5
🔘 Nigel Farage	Reform UK	2/9
🔴 Sir Keir Starmer	Labour	1/500
🟡Jeremy Corbyn	Independent	4/9

Source: SiGMA

Analyzing political forecasts

The former Prime Minister, Liz Truss, is also in the spotlight. Despite her brief and tumultuous tenure as PM, the odds are in favour of her retaining the Norfolk South West seat, with a 2/5 chance. This indicates a level of confidence from her constituents, or perhaps a reflection of the seat’s traditional alignment.

In a surprising turn, Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, is predicted to secure a win in Clacton with odds at 2/9. This would mark a significant milestone for Farage, potentially becoming an MP after several attempts. The odds reflect a more than 81 percent probability of victory, suggesting a strong undercurrent of support for Reform UK in the area.

Looking at the Labour Party, Sir Keir Starmer is expected to comfortably retain his seat in Holborn and St Pancras with overwhelming odds of 1/500. However, the situation in Islington North is particularly intriguing, as former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is favoured to win as an independent candidate with odds of 4/9. Corbyn’s enduring popularity among his constituents, despite his expulsion from the parliamentary party, underscores the complex dynamics within Labour and the broader political discourse.

These odds paint a picture of a political battlefield where longstanding loyalties and new challenges coexist. The upcoming general election is poised to be a defining moment, potentially reshaping the UK’s political map and setting the course for the nation’s future. As the date draws nearer, the stakes are high, and the outcomes uncertain, but one thing is clear: the UK is on the cusp of a potentially transformative political event.

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