Macau’s gamble on stricter regulations for unlicensed currency traders

Lea Hogg August 18, 2024

A report this weekend in the Financial Times confirmed that Macau is tightening its grip on unlicensed currency traders, the ripple effects on its casino industry and broader economy remain to be seen. The territory’s gamble on stricter regulations could either stabilise its financial system or drive gamblers to seek alternative, and potentially riskier, methods of funding their bets. These traders have long facilitated the flow of money for gamblers looking to bypass China’s stringent capital controls. The crackdown has sparked concerns about a potential regulatory clampdown that could impact the territory’s booming casino industry.

Macau, a former Portuguese colony, operates under a legal system distinct from mainland China and is the only place within the country where casino gambling is legal. The territory’s casinos are a major draw for millions of mainland Chinese visitors each year, contributing to an estimated gaming revenue of 216 billion patacas ($27 billion) in 2024, surpassing even Nevada’s earnings.

Unlicensed currency traders have been a crucial part of Macau’s gambling ecosystem, enabling tourists from mainland China to exchange their renminbi for the Hong Kong dollars used in casinos. However, policymakers in Macau’s semi-autonomous parliament recently announced that providing unauthorized currency-changing services within casino premises will now be a criminal offense. Offenders could face up to five years in prison and a ban of up to ten years from gambling sites.

Impact on casino stocks and broader economy

This crackdown has already had a tangible impact on the market. Shares of Macau’s six casino operators have taken a hit, with a Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Macau casino stocks dropping by about 7 percent in the past month. The move has also reignited fears of a renewed regulatory campaign similar to the one in 2021, which targeted underground finance networks facilitating capital flight from China.

“First they cracked down on the big fish, and now they’re going after the little ones,” remarked Ben Lee, managing partner at Macau-based consultancy IGamiX (pictured above). He noted that policymakers are particularly sensitive to the trade given China’s slowing economy. In June, China’s Ministry of Public Security called for a “high-pressure crackdown” to dismantle criminal gangs involved in illegal currency trading. By July, coordinated efforts between police in China and Macau had led to significant arrests in cities like Zhuhai, which borders Macau.

David Green of Newpage Consulting, a former advisor to the Macau government, pointed out that while money exchange gangs are not new, they were previously considered less of a concern compared to money laundering and underground banking. The 2021 crackdown on junkets, which were promoters that brought high-spending mainland gamblers to Macau, has now shifted focus to unlicensed money-exchange operators.

Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that only about 10 percent of Macau’s gaming revenue comes from in-casino unlicensed money exchange services. They caution that the crackdown might push gamblers to seek other financing routes, such as using mainland bank cards at local pawn shops or currency exchanges outside resort premises. Analysts have also noted that stocks like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment are trading near or below their Covid-era lows, adding to the uncertainty and fragile investment sentiment in Macau’s gaming sector.