Sinn Féin’s gamble on immigration

Lea Hogg July 29, 2024

Sinn Féin, witnessing its long-standing poll lead potentially disintegrate, is now strategically shifting its focus to immigration, a gamble that is politically sensitive and divisive issue. This political strategy is aimed at gaining traction among key voter demographics and controlling the prevailing narrative.

However, such a pivot can be risky, especially when the issue has broader implications beyond mere political positioning. Misinterpretation can occur if the new message and its underlying reasons are not clearly and precisely communicated.

The decline in poll support and the perception that Sinn Féin underperformed in last month’s local and European elections have led some political strategists to believe that the party may view the escalating immigration debate as an opportunity to realign itself with the views of non-government voters. However, unless this gamble is carefully managed, both supporters and detractors believe the party could solve one problem while potentially creating many more.

Sinn Féin’s heightened attention to the asylum seeker issue is seen as a response to last month’s local and European election results. However, this is only part of a story that began much earlier and extends beyond just one party. Over the past year, polls have consistently shown that immigration has become an increasingly significant issue for voters.

Hedging on immigration policy

Regardless of the cause, this situation has led to parties subtly changing their stance on the issue. Sinn Féin is no exception and has clear political reasons, albeit not universally agreeable, to shift its views on the issue.

Despite consistently leading almost every opinion poll since the 2020 general election, the party’s suggested poll support has fallen sharply from a record high of 36 percent in June 2022 to 23 percent in the latest Red C/Business Post poll. This decline is reflected in the ballot box as well.

On paper, Sinn Féin’s performance in last month’s local and European elections does not seem as disastrous as some portray it, with the party gaining 21 local authority seats and increasing its MEP seats from one to two. However, these results are compared to a dismal performance in 2019 when the party lost almost half of its local election seats and two of its three MEP seats.

When viewed in the context of small but significant anti-immigration voting patterns in constituencies previously considered fertile ground for Sinn Féin, the party’s inability to articulate a clear position on the asylum seeker system has been identified as a growing problem.

This view is supported by a recent Irish Times/Ipsos poll, which suggested that 44 percent of Sinn Féin voters surveyed would likely vote for a candidate advocating for a tougher asylum seeker system. This pragmatic reason for Sinn Féin’s recent pivot is apparent.

In response to this changing situation, Sinn Féin has hardened its immigration and asylum seeker system policy, most notably in the past fortnight. Mary Lou McDonald, after reviewing the party’s local and European election performance, stated bluntly that her party had “lost the trust” of voters and diverged from “where most people are” on immigration.

Sinn Féin “stands firmly against racism,” McDonald stated that “on the issue of immigration, we have failed to reflect where most people are at.” She added that Ireland “must have an immigration policy that makes sense to people.” Days later, McDonald responded to the violence in Coolock over plans for an international protection applicant centre with an open letter to the Taoiseach calling for “engagement” between the Government and “concerned” groups.