Bookies Odds: Harris leads Trump in Presidential race

Lea Hogg July 25, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. Following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign and endorse Harris, the poll indicates that Harris is ahead of Trump by 42 percent to 44 percent.

This shift marks a notable change from the previous week’s poll, which showed Biden trailing Trump by two percentage points. The new survey, conducted shortly after the Republican National Convention and Biden’s announcement, highlights the rapidly evolving dynamics of the presidential race.

***Source: SiGMA Odds for Kamala Harris for next President of USA***

Harris secured the Democratic nomination, now leads Trump within the poll’s three-percentage-point margin of error. In mid-July, both candidates were tied at 44 percent, and earlier in the month, Trump held a narrow one-point lead. Fluctuations of the competitive nature of the race and the potential for further changes are expected as the campaign progresses.

Reuters/Ipsos poll reports tight race

The importance of nationwide surveys lies in their ability to signal American support for political candidates. However, the ultimate decision in a presidential election rests with a few pivotal states in the U.S. Electoral College. These battleground states often determine the final outcome, making their polling results crucial in predicting the election winner.

A pollster from Trump’s campaign downplayed Harris’ recent surge in support, attributing it to the extensive media coverage following her new candidacy. “That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” said Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for Trump’s campaign, in a memo circulated to reporters. He suggested that candidates typically experience a rise in popularity after accepting their party’s nomination during high-profile conventions.

Despite expectations of a post-convention boost for Trump, the poll showed no significant increase in his support. This indicates that Harris’ lead might be more stable than initially anticipated.

Biden’s decision to exit the race and endorse Harris was influenced by several factors, including public perception of his mental acuity. The poll revealed that 56 percent of registered voters believe Harris, 59, is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49 percent who said the same of Trump, 78. Only 22 percent of voters shared this view about Biden, 81.

Biden’s exit followed a debate with Trump where he struggled to respond effectively to the former president’s attacks, some of which contained falsehoods. This performance raised concerns about his ability to campaign effectively against Donald Trump.

As the race intensifies, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll gives an insight into the rationale behind Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’ ascension as the Democratic nominee. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Harris can maintain her lead and capitalize on the momentum generated by her candidacy.