CBRE analysis: Positive financial outlook for Incheon Mohegan INSPIRE in 2024

Jenny Ortiz May 17, 2024

SiGMA news

CBRE analysis: Positive financial outlook for Incheon Mohegan INSPIRE in 2024

A recent analysis by CBRE said the Incheon Mohegan INSPIRE integrated resort (IR) is expected to show positive EBITDA results in 2024. This forecast follows Mohegan’s announcement of its highest-ever quarterly net revenue, reaching $461.73 million (€425.5 million) — a 13.8 percent increase year-over-year.

The South Korean resort, which opened on March 5, has become a significant revenue stream for Mohegan, the US-based operator. Although specific performance metrics were not fully disclosed, CBRE estimates that gaming revenue comprised approximately 40 percent of the total revenue mix during the first two months of the casino’s operation.

Market impact and competition

CBRE analysts Colin Mansfield and Connor Parks highlighted that INSPIRE is contributing to market growth through increased visitation, gaming drop, and lodging. However, it faces competition from Paradise City. While INSPIRE’s revenue exceeded initial forecasts of $30.1 million (€27.2 million), the property reported a $24.1 million (€22.2 million) EBITDA loss for the quarter, attributed to excess labor and marketing costs typical of a casino opening.

Encouraging trends in Korean gaming market

CBRE pointed to two positive trends for the South Korean gaming market: an increase in inbound visitation to Korea and INSPIRE’s impact on the overall market. February saw a 22 percent month-over-month increase in Chinese visitors to Korea, coinciding with the opening of INSPIRE’s casino.

Recovery potential and competitive dynamics

Despite initial losses, CBRE is optimistic about INSPIRE‘s long-term prospects. They note that there is still significant potential for recovery in visitation from mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which are currently at 70 percent, 87 percent, and 81 percent of 2019 levels, respectively. As travel to Korea improves, INSPIRE is expected to ramp up its operations and enhance its market presence.

The analysts also observed a 4 percent quarter-over-quarter growth in total gaming drop at Paradise City, INSPIRE’s direct competitor, following the latter’s opening. However, Paradise City experienced a 7 percent decline in mass drop during the same period, suggesting that INSPIRE is successfully attracting mass players from its competitor.

Promising indicators

Recent assessments of INSPIRE’s Forest Tower King room Average Daily Rate (ADR) indicate a rate of approximately $240 (€221.21), aligning with initial forecasts and supporting anticipated growth trajectories. For CBRE, these trends reflect the resilience and promising future of the Korean gaming industry.