Following President Joe Biden’s unexpected announcement that he would not be seeking re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris saw a significant boost in her presidential betting odds
What are the current betting odds considering this change?
Currently, Kamala Harris holds the strongest odds among Democrats to win the presidential race, standing at +350. Donald Trump, however, remains the frontrunner with odds at -161, a slight dip from his previous -189 after Biden’s withdrawal. Biden, as a result, is no longer a viable betting option. Despite this surge, Harris still trails former President Donald Trump in the November election projections.
Source: SiGMA US Presidential Odds 2024
Democrat nomination betting odds
Other notable Democrats include Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (+2900), former First Lady Michelle Obama (+3300), California Governor Gavin Newsom (+4500), and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (+7900).
Based on the latest polling data, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 2.0 percent according to an average of 67 polls. As of July 21, 2024, Trump has 47.4 percent support while Harris has 45.4 percent. Notably, polls show variations in the lead, with some indicating a tighter race or even a tie. For instance, a YouGov/CBS News poll shows Trump ahead by 3 percent, while a Marist College poll places Harris slightly ahead by 1 percent. These polling averages are adjusted to account for potential biases, providing a more balanced view of the candidates’ standings.
Source: SiGMA Trump has a 2.0% lead based on 67 polls.
How accurate have betting odds been in past presidential elections?
Since 1866, the betting favourite has lost only twice according to USA Today.
The two notable upsets occurred in 1948 and 2016. In 1948, Harry Truman (Democrat) defied eight-to-one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (Republican). In 2016, Donald Trump (Republican) overcame seven-to-two odds to win against Hillary Clinton (Democrat).
