Silver Lake’s next move: Divest OpenBet or ride the US sports betting wave?

The is setting its sights on attracting approximately 15 percent more inbound tourists from the United States, recognizing the significant contribution of this "highly valuable" market to the nation's tourism sector's full recovery.  

In 2023, the Philippines welcomed over 903,299 visitors from the US, generating PHP35 billion (€567 million) in tourism revenue—the highest among the country’s top tourist markets. This significant contribution underscores the importance of the American market in driving tourism receipts. 

In a report by the Philippine News Agency, Francisco Hilario Lardizabal, Philippine Tourism Director-Attache in New York, emphasized the strategic importance of the US market, highlighting that despite fewer arrivals, their spending power significantly boosts tourism revenue. He said that many inbound US travellers to the are former Filipino citizens, with a primary motivation to visit friends and relatives, leading to longer stays and higher expenditures. 

Lardizabal expressed confidence in achieving a 15 percent increase in inbound US visitors compared to 2023 figures. The Department of Tourism (DOT) is adopting a multifaceted approach to attract the market, including forging partnerships, enhancing training for travel agents, participating in B2B travel trade events, and organizing curated familiarization tours. 

A shift in US traveller demographics has been observed, with millennials showing increasing interest in the Philippines. The DOT aims to address the needs and preferences of this demographic by focusing on immersion or experiential travel, wellness tourism, workcation, premium travel, solo travel, and adventure and sports. 

Lardizabal highlighted emerging travel trends in the US market, such as increased interest in sports and activities like hiking, horseback riding, cycling, and scuba diving. These preferences present opportunities for the Philippines to tailor its offerings to cater to the evolving needs of US travellers, thereby further enhancing its appeal as a tourism destination. 

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, has decided to retract its advertisements from various locations, including the London transport network. This move comes after a wave of public disapproval over the nature of the ads and criticism directed at London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, (pictured above on the right), for permitting the ads to be displayed.

As the mayoral election looms, Susan Hall, (pictured above on the left), Khan’s Conservative opponent, has joined forces with a leading clinician and a group of peers to question Transport for London’s (TfL) perplexing decision to approve the campaign. TfL has a history of rejecting promotions featuring artisanal cheese, a poster for a play depicting a Victoria sponge cake, and the Wimbledon tennis tournament’s renowned strawberries and cream, arguing that they encouraged unhealthy eating habits.

However, despite Khan’s 2021 manifesto commitment to prohibit gambling ads on London’s transport network, TfL has continued to accept promotions for bookmakers and online casinos. This is pending an independent review of the relationship between advertising and gambling-related harm.

Recently, on the London Underground, trains, and buses, with slogans like “This carriage is now a casino”. Some black cabs even carried the slogan “Fancy a spin?”. The company stated that the ads “could be interpreted in a different manner to the brand position we aim for”. This decision is believed to be a reaction to criticism of the manner in which the ads endorse online casino games. According to NHS survey data, these games are linked with higher harm rates than most other gambling products. TfL stated that the 888 ads adhered to the advertising regulator’s broadcasting code and its own policies, including the stipulation that the ads should not “trivialise gambling”.

Hall, Khan’s main competitor in the mayoral race, expressed confusion at Khan’s inconsistent stance on what advertisements he permits and bans. She questioned why he would ban ads featuring cheese or strawberries and cream, while appearing indifferent about vaping and gambling ads. Professor Henrietta Bowden-Jones, who supervises the National Problem Gambling Clinic and is acknowledged as one of the UK’s leading experts on addiction, also criticised Khan after seeing one of the ads on the tube.

In a letter to TfL’s commissioner, Andrew Lord, the House of Lords group Peers for Gambling Reform argued that the “aggressive” ads contradicted Khan’s manifesto pledge. The group’s chair, Don Foster, stated that TfL’s position on gambling, compared to junk food ads, was “clearly inconsistent”. TfL’s review of its policy on gambling ads has enabled companies like 888.com, chaired by Labour peer Jonathan Mendelsohn, to launch high-profile campaigns. Over the past two years, gambling firms have spent nearly £1.8 million to advertise on the network.

888.com has been hit with some of the largest fines in the history of the British betting industry, including a £9.4 million penalty in 2022 for multiple failings that resulted in customers incurring massive losses during the height of the Covid crisis.

In 2017, it was fined £7.8 million, then a record penalty, for similar failings. It also owns William Hill, the current record holder for the highest penalty ever issued by the Gambling Commission, a £19.2 million fine imposed in 2023. While TfL accepted 888’s ads, it has previously banned images promoting food considered unhealthy due to its high fat, sugar, or salt content. Ads deemed unacceptable included one featuring artisanal cheese and a promotion for the Wimbledon tennis championships that included strawberries and cream.

In Italy, a significant shift in advertising policy occurred in 2019 when the government implemented a decree of dignity, that would change the landscape of advertising in the country. This decree led to the banning of almost all forms of marketing related to a particular industry. This sweeping ban covered various mediums, from television and radio to print and the internet. The decision was driven by a study that revealed a startling statistic - 3 percent of the country’s population was grappling with harm related to this industry.

Meanwhile, other European nations were also following. Countries like Germany, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands were tightening their rules around this industry’s advertising. They recognized the need for new regulations, not just for traditional forms of this industry but also for the emerging digital platforms. These included online platforms, virtual games, and even poker matches.

Across the Atlantic, the United States had a different approach. Each jurisdiction had its own authority and statutes governing this industry. However, there were general rules that applied across state lines.

Melco Resorts & Entertainment has announced its strategic plan to primarily focus on the Indian and Sri Lankan market with its casino venture in Sri Lanka. The company projects that the annual gaming revenues could soar up to US$250 million.

The Government of Sri Lanka has awarded This allows Melco to design and manage the casino and a portion of the hotel rooms at Sri Lanka’s US$1 billion Cinnamon Life Integrated Resort. The casino is slated to start operations in mid-2025.

During the company’s Q1 2024 earnings call, Lawrence Ho, Melco Chairman and CEO, shared his vision of Sri Lanka emerging as the Macau of Asia. He believes that by leveraging Sri Lanka, being the nearest gaming jurisdiction to India, can provide a unique gaming experience.

Geoff Davis, Melco Executive Vice President and CFO, added that India is undoubtedly the most intriguing feeder market with immense potential. While there is a certain level of domestic spending, the company’s objective will be to cater to those feeder markets in India and the wider region.

Davis anticipates that international play will eventually make up two-thirds of the company’s Sri Lankan revenues, with GGR comfortably in the US$200 million to $250 million range annually.

Melco has plans to invest US$125 million to design the casino, which Ho described as a “small bet for a potentially huge opportunity.”

The company, in collaboration with local partner John Keells, is significantly raising the bar to a world-class standard with this integrated resort and the casino they’re designing. While it’s a bit early to provide specific returns, the company is expecting returns that are very attractive and shareholder-friendly, that will also enhance shareholder value and probably offer returns that would be challenging to achieve in most mature markets.

This strategic move by Melco is seen as an excellent method to tap into a market with enormous potential in a capital-efficient manner.

Comparative study of Sri Lanka and Macau

Sri Lanka’s Flourishing Gaming Industry: Sri Lanka’s gaming industry, especially the online gaming sector, has been witnessing substantial growth in recent times. The surge in mobile gaming is attributed to the popularity of smartphones and affordable mobile data plans. The government is actively working towards establishing a regulatory framework for the online gaming industry. However, the industry faces a significant challenge due to the low internet penetration rate in Sri Lanka. Despite these challenges, the rising disposable income in Sri Lanka has led to an increase in spending on leisure activities, thereby driving demand for online games.

Macau’s Thriving Gaming Industry: On the other hand, Macau, often referred to as the “Las Vegas of Asia,” is the only region in China where gambling is legal. The gaming industry in Macau is one of the most vital industries, providing over 54,000 job opportunities. Macau’s gaming industry generated 19.3 billion patacas (US$2.37 billion) in its first monthly tally of gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2024.

Comparative Analysis: While Sri Lanka’s gaming industry is still in its growth phase with a focus on online gaming, Macau’s gaming industry is more mature and primarily centered around physical casinos. Both markets possess their unique strengths and opportunities. It will indeed be intriguing to observe how these industries evolve in the future.

The rapid development of the iGaming sphere has become possible due to the advancement of the software used by online gaming. To provide users with exciting and high-quality products, the industry requires a deep understanding of cutting-edge technologies, concepts and approaches such as High Load, Big Data, High Availability, High Scalability, Realtime and Low Latency. Therefore, iGaming software developers are driving the global development of the industry and this is precisely what PIN-UP.TECH are doing.

The PIN-UP.TECH segment is part of the PIN-UP Global ecosystem and consists of IT companies specialising in software development for all their members. Among the achievements of PIN-UP.TECH are unique technological solutions which enable partners to maintain their leading position and provide players with a high quality service. Over 500 specialists from different countries are involved in the technical direction of PIN-UP, who ensure the stability of iGaming platforms, CRM, anti-fraud tools, affiliate systems and much more. Among the leaders of this professional team is Volodymyr Todurov, Chief Analytics Officer, who shared with SiGMA News comments about their unique work experience. 

Could you tell us more about the ML/AI model and how it works for you?

AI-based decision models meticulously scrutinise numerous parameters associated with each transaction, encompassing variables such as the frequency of bets, their sizes, the selected events, as well as their history. These parameters undergo analysis within the model, where those exhibiting the highest predictive efficacy are identified and incorporated into the forecasting process. 

IWe have employed machine learning with a primary focus on the extreme gradient boosting model, renowned for its efficacy with structured data. The crux of this approach lies in constructing an ensemble of models that iteratively refine each other, thereby bolstering the accuracy of the forecasts. The model is fed with an extensive betting history as input and yields a probability in the range of 0..1, indicating the likelihood of user involvement in fraudulent activities.

What are the advantages of an AI-based anti-fraud model compared to a classic one?

When we are confronted with vast quantities of data, the utility of ML/AI models becomes evident. They offer a heightened capacity to generalise information and discern patterns in customer behavior that elude methods like manual transaction analysis or the application of linear rules.

AI serves as an additional toolkit for the operations team, streamlining processes by reducing error rates and decision-making times for individual cases, while also uncovering fresh insights into our clientele. In certain respects, AI enriches our expertise and broadens our perspectives by employing a slightly divergent approach to decision-making. Many tasks can now be delegated to AI with autonomy. 

Consequently, AI facilitates the expansion of business volumes without a proportional increase in the risk-management team, streamlining daily operations by eliminating tedious routines and affording the opportunity to delve deeper into the analysis of other processes.

In your opinion, how can AI-based anti-fraud tools develop and what problems can they solve in the future?

Within the team, we outlined how we see the development of anti-fraud tools using ML and AI, and made our plans for the further implementation of these technologies. Our next step involves crafting a decision-making system using cutting-edge deep neural networks and generative artificial intelligence. By slashing decision times, we're getting closer to our goal of ramping up accuracy and speed in spotting fraudulent client behaviour.

This approach, with its knack for learning and adapting, dives deep into each client's history, employing various scenarios to pinpoint specific groups, including fraudsters. These new tools, once honed to a tee, are a real find for the anti-fraud team's daily grind.

For big businesses, they're like a trusty sidekick for retrospective checks, ensuring we've correctly labeled all clients as either "good" or "bad," so managers may not worry, knowing they haven't missed any troublemakers. And for small businesses, they're a game-changer, eliminating the need for a hefty analyst team right off the bat. Let AI take the wheel on manual tasks, and watch the anti-fraud department's efficiency skyrocket.

What are some ways to further improve the efficiency of anti-fouling processes? Tell us briefly about your approaches.  

Each team, taking into account the direction of the business and the number of specialists, has its own secrets of increasing efficiency and intelligently solving complex problems. For us, this is definitely procedures automatisation based on a DDDM approach, which allows us to think out of the box. We evaluate all workflows seeking optimisation points. Our goal is to find the manual procedure, so called “monkey job”, to automate it. 

The problem could be solved in different ways: I will give a couple of examples from our operations within the last few years. Previously, anti-fraud analysts needed to export a few csv-tables to merge them in order to understand if there are certain behavioural changes on player accounts based on financial and gambling history. We realised that we will save at least 10-15 minutes of manual operations per each case just creating a new default real-time dashboard with pivot tables and charts needed. 

Another case is reviewing current operations. Let’s take a look at the withdrawal confirmation process. Based on a DDDM approach we analyse the weight of evidence on each reason leading to manual withdrawal confirmation. Some of the reasons were created as a reaction to certain fraud cases to keep an eye on potential returning fraud. However, business expanded and more new players from new GEOs led to decrease the performance of the rule. So, we adopted the rule and made a 15% uplift in the team’s productivity in terms of their workload. The main point here is to run continuous analysis on workflow operations based on load and productivity measurements to find the optimisations combining management and automatisation. 

What processes does a business need to set up to integrate the DDDM model, how long can it take, and how fast does it generate revenue?

The main point regarding DDDM is the mindset. Senior managers must deny all arguments based on feelings, hopes and “expertise”. I mean, this kind of approach should be used only for some exceptions when you have no data to calculate your decision. Or when the problem is not worth calculating efforts. Every time you want to make changes on your product ask the team about numbers.

The very common mistake is so-called survivorship bias. Pay attention that you make conclusions using end-to-end analysis to relevant scope of entities. Based on practice, managers forget to make helicopter views on the issue pretty often. I will make an example within anti-fraud operations. A manager came with retrospective fraud activity analysis based on welcome bonus abuse within the last 4 months. 83% of users had the same patterns to create an alerting scoring trigger: first deposit over $13, using prepaid bank card, IP analysis mismatch (probably proxies or VPN). Looks pretty good, yes? 

However, I asked to make calculations if there is still a good efficiency if we will extrapolate this trigger to whole new users. Scoring models showed 5% efficiency. So, some combination of attributes could perfectly describe a group of fraud users and still be common for a bigger segment of good users. By the way, we added some gamestyle patterns to those welcome bonus hunters triggers to segregate from good players and keep the trigger in production.

Using DDDM will bring value from Day 1. You will avoid mistakes and increase productivity. The main point is to ask the team to show their number as the main argument on the business decision made.

Volodymyr’s short bio:

Volodymyr Todurov has eight years of experience in gambling, having held the positions of risk manager, and head of antifraud & analytics. He currently holds the position of chief analytics officer at PIN-UP Global. He is an expert in risk management operations of sportsbook, casino, affiliate programmes, marketing, payment systems. Volodymyr specialises in data-driven decision-making approach, economic modeling, and forecasting.

We're continuing our conversations with the experts at PIN-UP Global, so stay tuned to SiGMA News for more on the current engines of the iGaming sphere.

Upcoming SiGMA event: SiGMA Asia 2024, 2 – 5 June. Find all the details .