CLSA forecasts Thailand’s potential casino market to be gaming powerhouse

Jenny Ortiz July 30, 2024

SiGMA news

CLSA forecasts Thailand’s potential casino market to be gaming powerhouse

Brokerage CLSA forecasts Thailand’s potential legalised casino market could generate annual gross gaming revenues (GGR) of $15.1 billion (€13.9 billion), making it the third largest globally. This optimistic projection hinges on Thailand’s anticipated tourism growth, particularly from China and India, alongside favourable regulatory conditions.

CLSA analysts estimate that Thailand could attract 39 million visitors annually, with each spending an average of $386 (€356). The country’s relatively low 17 percent gaming tax rate and lack of strict caps on gaming tables and slot machines could lead to an EBITDA margin of around 40 percent, comparable to Singapore’s integrated resorts (IR) like Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa.

Economic impact and investment returns

The CLSA report translates these figures into an annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) of $2.1 billion (€1.9 billion) per complex and an EBITDA of $805 million (€743.6 million), with a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 23.9 percent and a payback period of about four years once fully operational. This substantial economic potential positions Thailand as a lucrative market for international casino operators.

Thailand’s government is actively working to enhance tourism infrastructure, which is expected to boost its appeal to key markets, especially China and India. These countries accounted for 33 percent of Thailand’s visitors in 2019, but their current travel penetration rates of 0.8 percent for China and 0.1 percent for India suggest significant growth potential.

Comparisons and market dynamics

Despite the promising outlook for Thailand’s casino market, CLSA does not anticipate a significant impact on Macau‘s dominance in the global gaming industry. CLSA study said the differences in visitor profiles and market offerings between Macau and Thailand are expected to allow both markets to thrive concurrently. Macau’s well-established gaming infrastructure and unique cultural heritage offer a different experience compared to Thailand’s emerging market.

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